WRAL Weather seasonal outlook: How much will spring swing?

We have all heard the idiom “spring is just around the corner,” and while Spring 2021 is still a few weeks away many of us are rather optimistic to what it can bring! Maybe, just maybe, this spring will bring drier conditions compared to the second wettest winter on record and the third wettest year on record (2020). Maybe we will see more sunshine and be able to get out of our homes and truly enjoy one of the great seasons in North Carolina. So, what can we expect this spring?

The beginning of spring, marked by the vernal equinox, is March 20 at 5:37 a.m. This is when the sun’s center passes over the equator from the south to the north. In North Carolina, spring is associated with quite the whirlwind of weather from erratic temperature trends to severe thunderstorms, even tornadoes. Despite our weather’s unpredictability, spring is when we typically get a break from the rather rainy weather, see more sunshine and enjoy increases in both afternoon temperatures and length of our days.

To better understand how Spring 2021 can compare to the seasonal normal we have to analyze some of the cyclical changes that occur regularly besides the seasonal patterns that occur annually. There are less-regular cycles with durations from a few months up to several decades and, while their cause is not clearly understood, their changes in one part of the world can have well-defined effects on global weather patterns. The cycles are generally defined by changes in air pressure, sea temperature and wind direction over oceans.

The El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one such cycle that has three phases defined by sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. We have the warm phase, El Niño, the cold phase, La Niña and the neutral phase, ENSO Neutral. Currently, La Niña conditions are present and have been one of the reasons behind our very active and wet winter.

Despite those La Niña conditions, the Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society are saying that there is about a 60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the spring. This can finally mean a shift from the volatile jet stream pattern we have seen, moving from the north to the south (meridional flow), to a more tranquil jet stream pattern, moving from the west to the east (zonal flow).

When analyzing springs that began with La Niña conditions and ended with ENSO-Neutral conditions we saw a trend in temperatures being near normal with rainfall just slightly above normal. That is a good sign for those of you looking for some less rainy days, more tranquil weather and a lower variance in our temperatures.

Regardless of what weather comes our way this spring, the WRAL Severe Weather Center will be there every step of the way. North Carolina’s weather is unpredictable, and WRAL is the station to turn to when inclement weather comes our way.