I'm trying to decide on my wedding date for this October. I've consulted the Farmer's Almanac, and the information they give is very broad. The Farmer's Almanac says that temperatures should be above normal for October, but cooling down during 20-24. What I'm wondering is if there is anyway to predict the temperature difference expected? If "above average" means temperatures in the high 70s and so a cool down would put us in the 60s - that's a big difference. If the "above normal" temperature is in the high 80s and I prefer 70s, then maybe the 20th is the better option . . . can you help me? Is there anyway for me to make an educated decision instead of just guessing? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

MIKE MOSS SAYS:      Amy,    I'm afraid that any attempt to choose the date according to temperature this far in advance has to be based on the climatological normals for that date, with the understanding that there is a chance the actual temperature could end up well above or below that normal value. Long term forecasts for above or below normal temperatures are so general as to be of no real use when it comes to a specific date, and shorter term forecasts that are likely to be more reliable will not be available until a week or less before the event.

Here are some resources you might like to make use of as October gradually draws closer:

1. For climatological planning purposes, you can retrieve daily average temperature and precipitation info for various stations around the state from

http://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/historical_nc.html

Just click on the site of interest, and then scroll down to the "Daily Tabular Data" and "Daily Summary Stats" links along the left hand side of the page. For that time of year, there is almost a 70% chance that the high temperature will fall somewhere within +/- 8 degrees of the average shown for each date.

2. For climate outlooks months in advance, see

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/

and click the outlook centered on October. These are very general, as noted above.

3. Once you're within a few weeks, you can check the following products, also fairly general

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

4. At 5 days or so in advance, meaningful specific forecasts will become available and typically become more confident/reliable as the day draws closer.

Best wishes!