Rapid Intensification: A Strengthening Hurricane Lee

We are getting very close to the climatological peak of hurricane season, and activity is certainly heating up. Hurricane Lee has been the big focus with major development expected into the weekend.

There has been a lot of talk about whether the system could strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane north of the Caribbean Islands. For this classification to take place, we would have to see 157 mph winds or greater. The current forecast keeps Lee just shy of that ominous status. Nonetheless, we are expected to see a process called “rapid intensification” taking place over the coming days that will allow Lee to become a beast of a storm. This term then begs the question – what exactly is “rapid intensification” and what factors can aid in this strengthening?

We first need to focus on the wind speed of the storm. We classify tropical cyclones based on this specific speed with the general naming conventions of: Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Category 1-5 Hurricane in order of increasing wind speed. In order for a storm to have underdone “rapid intensification”, its wind speed must have increased by at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. For a tropical system, this is significant strengthening in a relatively short period of time.

As ocean temperatures warm, along with the effects of climate change, we have seen more and more storms rapidly intensifying. They can take advantage of the warm water as fuel and become extremely powerful, which can lead to more effects on life and property.

We will continue to monitor Lee, which is expected to rapidly intensify in the coming days. Make sure to keep checking back with the WRAL team of Meteorologists as we go through the rest of this hurricane season.