Which Wolfpack Will Duke Find in Tampa?

People have been telling me all week that N.C. State will beat Duke in Thursday’s opening round of the ACC tournament. I mean quite a few. Now, I can’t tell you that will happen—but I wouldn’t be surprised if it does. Not at all.

The thing is, with State you just don’t know. They have the talent to play with Duke. They also have Engin Atsur, whom they didn’t have in Duke’s lopsided win back in January.

But will the State team that shows up in Tampa be the one that beat Carolina once and Virginia Tech twice or the one that gave up 21 offensive rebounds in a bad loss to Miami and was blown out by Florida State?

I know you can think of several others debacles, and you don’t know with these guys.

N.C. State head coach Sidney Lowe was the MVP of the tournament back in 1983. He knows what it takes to win this tournament, and he says he feels good about his 15-14 team coming into this one.

“I think we’re fresh,” says Lowe, who certainly doesn’t want to finish his first year at his alma mater on a first-round loss. “I don’t think we’re tired as some people thought. I think we’re fresh.”

Lowe knows what the pressure of this tournament is like. After all, the Pack coming into it in ‘83 knew they had to win the tournament to make it to the NCAAs. He knows what it takes—but does it translate?

“We told the guys it’s a one-game elimination and you’ve got to go out and play this game not like the last game of the season, but the last game of your life.”

I expect State to play hard, but I also expect Duke to play hard. The 60-year-old coach with the jet-black hair who’s got the Hall of Fame resume will make sure of that. He knows a little something about this tournament as well.

Duke has owned the ACC tournament for quite a stretch. Nine straight years, they have been in the finals, winning seven of those. That’s unprecedented in ACC basketball history. It’s been an unbelievable run.

But this team is not those Duke teams, and everybody knows it. The odds are not remotely in their favor to make it eight of the last nine.

Beating State is not even a given, and winning four straight doesn’t seem possible for this Duke team, which will play Thursday without suspended freshman Gerald Henderson. His hard foul to Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough last weekend will put him in street clothes. The Devils, though, at least talk confidently.

“I know that the way we’re preparing for the tournament, we’re preparing to win it,” says junior tri-captain DeMarcus Nelson. “There’s no other way around it. We’re not going into the tournament to win a game, to win two games or to make it to Sunday. We’re coming into this tournament to win it.”

I do feel that the winner of this game will have an excellent shot to make it to Saturday, because what I think is a most beatable second seed in Virginia is waiting in the wings. Win this game and who knows?

The first time Duke and State played, State was a man short without Atsur. This time, it will be Duke that’s the man short without Henderson. The Pack performed poorly without their senior leader. It remains to be seen how Duke plays without its athletic freshman.

Duke is trying to muster the swagger of a champion. They say they won’t go down without a fight.

“Four games in four days: it’s a tough job,” says Nelson. “But it’s not something we can’t do. I’m very confident in our team and where we’re at.”

Lowe is confident, too. He believes his Wolfpack, certainly beat up some during the season, is ready for a fresh start. They have nothing to lose

“It’s 0-0, it’s nothing, nothing. We’ve got this opportunity to do something special.”

That they do—but so does Duke.

A little birdie in my ear is whispering State will pull the upset. I’m listening, but I’m not sure.