Bob Holliday: Two Weeks To Go

Paper covers rock. Rock breaks scissors. Scissors cut paper. How else to explain the madcap middle of this season in the Atlantic Coast Conference. North Carolina can beat Boston College but can't handle N.C. State or Virginia Tech. N.C. State dominates Tech and beat Carolina, but cannot compete with Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia, Duke, or even Miami. Virginia Tech handles Carolina and Virginia but can't conquer Florida State or Boston College. Georgia Tech is unbeatable at home, but couldn't beat Sisters of the Poor on the road. And Duke? It owns Boston College, but has struggled against Virginia Tech, Maryland, and Florida State.

The balance in the ACC has produced an unprecedented revolving door for the league in college basketball's rankings. Something like nine league teams have been ranked at some point. Few have remained ranked. Virginia Tech in. Virginia Tech out. BC makes the poll. BC gets the boot. Even Duke fell out of the rankings, the first time that's happened since 1997. North Carolina is the only ACC team to be ranked all season long. In spite of this lack of respect shown by the pollsters, most analysts think the NCAA Tournament Committee will grant the ACC anywhere from six to eight, maybe nine bids.

North Carolina is considered the ACC's most talented team, but that doesn't guarantee the Heels will win the ACC championship -- regular season or tournament. Carolina looks about unbeatable in up-tempo games. But teams have had real success against the Tar Heels in the halfcourt. Carolina also struggles in close games. Guess what the coming weeks will bring? A steady diet of half-court games and likely close games. Saturday's win over Boston College should give the Heels some confidence in future close, half-court games. But with Carolina facing home games against rivals State and Duke bookending road trips to Maryland and Georgia Tech, this team could still drop a notch or two in the ACC race.

The challengers: Virginia has the friendliest remaining schedule. The Cavaliers visit lowly Miami then host Georgia Tech, a team that has been pure roadkill in conference games. UVA gets an emotional rematch with Virginia Tech at home, then finishes at Wake Forest. BC and Tech must play each other, plus both teams are already a game back in the loss column. BC must play Georgia Tech in Atlanta where the Yellowjackets are formidable. As mentioned, Virginia Tech must go to Charlottesville.

And then there is Duke. Today, Mike Krzyzewski is thrilled just to have a winning record in the ACC. The schedule brings difficult road games at Clemson and Carolina, along with a home tilt against Maryland. If Duke doesn't finish with an over-.500 record, the Devils should still be considered a tough out in the ACC Tournament, which they have dominated for the last 10 years. The halfcourt games and close games that always seem to proliferate in the post-season may play to Duke's advantage.

Finally, a footnote about N.C. State. The Wolfpack has no chance at an NCAA at-large bid. Plus, its lack of depth and defensive grit make State an extreme longshot to win the ACC Tournament. But if State runs its offense in March as it did Sunday against Virginia Tech, the Wolfpack could spoil somebody's post-season.