What a difference a week can make! A Carolina win over Duke, a Duke loss to
Florida State and an NC State loss to Wake Forest have made for drastic
changes in the NCAA Tournament picture.
Last week I at least attempted to wade through the various bracket
projections available on the web. And this week's updates paint an even
better picture of or three area schools' fortunes.
DUKE
The Blue Devils are still a solid #1 seed, but their two losses have
weakened the Devils' standing somewhat. The new AP rankings back that up:
Duke's now third behind UConn and Villanova. Personally, I don't think Duke
will slip to a #2 tournament seed -- even with an early loss in the ACC
Tournament -- but that's at least up for debate now. A week ago it wasn't
even worth discussing.
What could change is the Devils' regional assignment. A loss this weekend
might take Duke out of Atlanta. Note that I say "might." If Villanova's not
placed in DC, Atlanta's the next-closest site, and if Memphis sneaks ahead
of Duke that could further cloud the picture. Bottom line: I don't think
Duke can hurt its standing this weekend -- I really don't -- but it's now at
least a possibility.
By the way, all eleven sites I surveyed this week have Duke as one of their
#1 seeds. Only one took the Devils out of Atlanta, "The Bracket Project"
puts Duke in the Minneapolis Region.
CAROLINA
Last week the Heels were somewhere between a #3 seed and a #4, and their
chances of opening up in Greensboro looked to be about 50-50. A win at Duke
can change that in a hurry!
Now, the Heels' average seeding in the mock brackets is a healthy 2.2, and
every single one of them has Carolina opening up in Greensboro. A strong
showing this weekend will only solidify their case for a #2 seed (and some
home cookin' in the Triad). An ACC Tournament title would fuel at least a
few dicussions about a #1 seed for the Tar Heels, but there are too many
teams ahead of them (in my mind) for a top seed to happen -- ACC Title or no
ACC Title.
STATE
The Pack's dropping fast. State's average seeding is now 6.8, and two sites
project the Pack as a #8 -- meaning a dreaded 2nd round meeting with a #1
seed. As for locations... Dayton, Philly and Jacksonville are the hot picks.
And how's this for an opening round matchup? One mock bracket has State facing UNC-Wilmington! Of all the area teams, State has the most to gain from this weekend's ACC
Tournament. A strong showing could easily pull the Pack out of those dreaded
6-7-8 doldrums into a more comfy 4-5-6 zone.
