Gerber: Did the Panthers just fail free agency?
Carolina was panned nationwide as a "loser" in NFL free agency, but reality is a little more complicated than that. A position-by-position breakdown grades the team's offseason performance so far.
Posted — UpdatedIf you were hoping that new general manager Dan Morgan could mold the Carolina Panthers into playoff contenders over just one offseason, keep dreaming.
The Panthers are still an NFL laughingstock and still very much a mess.
When Brian Burns was traded away earlier this month, it left exactly zero game-changers on the roster (by my estimation) that an opponent would have to gameplan around. Make no mistake, there's still a long, long road ahead.
And yet ...
I'm not exactly sure what's fair to expect from Morgan, given the dumpster fire he inherited. Is it possible that he's actually done an overall good job?
To help figure it out, let's go position group by position group, evaluate how free agency has gone so far... and of course, give out letter grades. Because everybody loves a good letter grade, right?
Edge Rusher/ Defensive Line
This seems like the most logical place to start.
Trading Brian Burns to the Giants made a lot of people unhappy, especially since the return haul isn't exactly what Panther fans expected.
Instead of two 1st round picks and a 2nd (which the Rams reportedly offered for Burns in 2021), Carolina ended up with a 2nd round pick and a 5th round pick swap this year, plus a conditional 5th rounder next year, in exchange for their star pass rusher.
The most Morgan can be criticized for is that maybe he sold too early.
Burns' stock was clearly in a lull. Carolina may have been able to get a better haul if they had just waited until after the draft.
The counterpoint, of course, is that trading Burns early freed up a bunch of cap room ($24 million to be exact) that the Panthers could then spend in free agency.
Incoming edge rusher D.J. Wonnum actually had the same number of sacks (8) as Burns did last season... but the former Viking should be thought of more as an Yetur Gross-Matos replacement. He's a complimentary piece who can be productive in spurts, not a centerpiece to build around.
I expect A'Shawn Robinson will start as an interior defensive lineman next season. The 8-year veteran isn't going to make the Pro Bowl, but he is a steady and versatile piece that can help Ejiro Evero's scheme and bolster the run defense.
K'Lavon Chaisson is a former first rounder with good physical, but shouldn't be seen as anything more than a medium-upside, one-year flier at this point.
Overall, this position group clearly got worse with Burns' departure. Trading him was likely the plan all along, especially after the team decided not to extend him last offseason, but even in a vaccuum, the trade return is pretty underwhelming.
Letter grade: C-
Linebacker
This one hurts too.
Next to Derrick Brown, I think Luvu was the best player on the Panthers defense last year. Yes, even better than Brian Burns.
The former special teams ace morphed into a star-caliber starting linebacker over the last two seasons, totaling 226 tackles, 29 TFL's and 12.5 sacks.
Seeing him sign with Washington (even though it sounds like the Panthers tried to keep him) was a huge blow to the fan base, especially since it happened within a couple hours of the Burns trade.
Bringing in former Bronco Josey Jewell to replace Luvu (while saving about $4-5 million per year) is a solid move, but still a downgrade in my opinion.
Justin Strnad, who just signed on Tuesday, is a former Wake Forest star with ties to the coaching staff. He seems like a solid fit, but probably won't move the needle much as a backup.
Linebacker should still be a strength for the Panthers next season with the addition of Jewell and the return of Shaq Thompson, but for our purposes, this is still another loss for Morgan and the front office.
Letter grade: D+
Secondary
Statistically, the Panthers secondary was one of the best in the NFL last season, allowing just 171.5 passing yards per game.
However, that number was certainly aided by the fact that Carolina's opponents almost always had the lead and could therefore play conservatively. (This was also a major factor in the defense's historically low takeaway rate.)
The fact that the front office was totally cool letting four contributors walk should tell you all you need to know -- this was not an elite group, regardless of what the stats say.
The 26-year old is a sure tackler, forced six takeaways by himself last season (3 interceptions and 3 fumbles forced) and already has experience playing under defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. I think the Panthers got a great value deal bringing him in.
As for Dane Jackson, he's a Dan Morgan guy from his days in Buffalo, but has been mostly a backup so far in his career.
For right now, the former 7th round pick looks like the de facto starter opposite Jaycee Horn at cornerback... but that doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
The Panthers could use another free agent signing if possible (Steven Nelson is still available) and certainly need to address this position in the draft.
Jackson will contribute, but I think he'll have to fight to lock down the starting job in camp.
Letter grade: C
Quarterback/ Running Back/ Special Teams
I'm lumping all three of these units together because there are no changes to report.
Bryce Young will obviously continue to be the starting quarterback in his second season, with Andy Dalton under contract as a very competent backup. There was nothing to be done in the QB room.
After seeing how many big-name running backs hit the market, I'm sure the Panthers have more than a little buyer's remorse with Miles Sanders.
The former Pro Bowler was a huge disappointment during his first season in Carolina, but his contract dictates that he pretty much has to be on the roster in 2024, before he can be cut (barring a huge turnaround) next offseason.
A backup running back with a $7.7 million cap hit is obviously not ideal, but it's hard to blame Dan Morgan for that. His hands are tied.
Chuba Hubbard has one more year on his deal and should finally get a full season to prove he's capable of being a lead back.
Letter grade: N/A
Wide Receiver/ Tight End
Finally, some unfettered positivity.
I'm not quite as high on the Diontae Johnson acquisition as some seem to be, but there's no argument here -- that trade was a win for the Panthers.
Letting Hayden Hurst leave was a no-brainer after his disappointing showing last season. David Moore is a solid veteran backup who's already familiar with the Panthers and head coach Dave Canales. And Ihmir Smith-Marsette proved he can be valuable as a gadget player/ special teamer.
I have no issues with any of those moves.
Now, reality check, is this pass-catching unit now an above-average in the NFL?
No.
Maybe if Mike Williams had opted to sign with with Carolina instead of the Jets we might have a case, but for now, this receiving corps is very much below average.
Letter grade: B+
Offensive Line
Remember all that cap space the Panthers saved in the Brian Burns trade? This is where they spent it.
The Panthers signed guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis for a combined $153 million over five and four years respectively.
You're probably thinking "wow, that's a lot for a non-premium position." And you would be right.
On the one hand, I can absolutely follow Dan Morgan's thinking here. This team isn't going to get better unless Bryce Young gets better and Bryce Young isn't going to get better if he has constant pressure in his face -- especially up the middle.
It's hard to imagine Hunt and Lewis not being a major upgrade over what Carolina dealt with at guard last season, so in that way, this is a win.
I get that the Panthers are a bad team and will probably have to overpay to get quality free agents in the building. I'm just not quite sure the value is there for these two signings. (I hope I'm wrong).
Nijman was mostly a rotation player in Green Bay, but performed well when given the chance.
At worst, he can play both right and left tackle and be a valuable replacement in case Taylor Moton or Ikem Ekwonu have to miss time.
At best, he eventually earns a full-time starting job, especially if Ekwonu continues to struggle like he did last season.
Letter grade: B-
Big picture
Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu will not be easily replaced.
Derrick Brown now remains as the only bonafide stud on the Panther defense, which could be in for a big step back next season. If Ejiro Evero can get this unit to produce even close to the same statistics as last year, he should be a prime head coaching candidate.
Dan Morgan and the rest of the front office obviously made it a priority to get Bryce Young some help on offense so they can get a better look at what they have in the young quarterback.
That should be the priority and I agree with the general plan of attack.
But the team made significant sacrifices on defense to accommodate that plan and, right now, all they have to show for it is a good-not-great receiver and an improved-but-overpaid interior offensive line.
I'll say it again: this roster has zero players that an opponent has to gameplan around. So unless Young can miraculously elevate and become one of those players, it's still going to be ugly.
I understand that "Rome wasn't built in a day" and "you have to walk before you can run"... all the cliches. But as somebody who went all-in on predicting a Panthers turnaround, the progress so far has been pretty underwhelming.
Hopefully the draft goes a lot better.
Final letter grade: C-
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