Business survey: Economic rebound not coming soon

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Don’t expect an economic rebound soon, say chief financial officers and certified public accountants.

In a survey from the University of North Carolina’s Kenan-Flagler Business School and the Durham-based American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, CFOs by an overwhelming margin said they don’t see a recovery for at least seven or eight months and possibly longer.

“Pessimism is at an all-time high, with pessimists outnumbering optimists by a ratio of 16:1,” the authors note in the second sentence.

"The outlook is overwhelmingly pessimistic," added Arleen Thomas, AICPA senior vice president for member competency and development. "Most CPAs working in business and industry don't expect any improvement in the U.S. economy before the second half of 2009 or the first half of 2010."

The survey, which is conducted quarterly, is the fourth consecutive one that concluded the U.S. economy was slowing. However, the respondents listing themselves as “very pessimistic” hit 18 percent – triple the percentage of the previous survey.

More CFOs also are concerned about their own firms.

"Up to now, respondents have generally been pessimistic about the economy as a whole but relatively optimistic about their own companies," said Mark Lang, am accounting professor at UNC-CH. "More respondents now anticipate decreases in revenues, profits and reduced hiring for their own organizations."