2022 looks to be an active tropical season

The Atlantic hurricane season is almost here and it looks like this could be the 7th year in a row with above-normal activity. Meteorologists look at several factors to determine what might happen during the hurricane season. One of the key things that we monitor are the sea surface temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. If the sea surface temperatures in this region are below normal, we are likely in a La Nina pattern. La Nina patterns typically bring a more active tropical season to the Atlantic. As of today, La Nina conditions are currently present. We are in a La Nina Advisory according to NOAA.

During a La Nina pattern, there is lower wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. We often talk about wind shear when looking at tropical forecasts. Wind shear is the change of wind speed or direction with height. Stronger wind shear helps to tear apart a storm. Conditions are more favorable for tropical development in a low wind shear environment.

2020 and 2021 were also La Nina years. 2022 will be the 3rd year in a row with a La Nina pattern. This has only happened twice since 1950: 1973-1975 and 1998-2000. The 1975 season was actually a below-normal season with only 9 named storms. The 2000 season was an above-normal season with 15 named storms. An average season has 14 named storms.

We also monitor sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. Warmer sea surface temperatures can help feed a storm. As of now, sea surface temperatures are below-normal along the North Carolina coast. But most of the Atlantic (where our storms develop) has above-normal sea surface temperatures.

With a La Nina pattern in place and above-normal sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic, the WRAL Severe Weather Team says we will likely have an above-normal season. Our forecast calls for 16-19 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, with 3-4 of the hurricanes reaching major status (winds 111 mph or higher).

The official season runs from June 1st to November 30th. Most of our tropical activity occurs from mid-August to mid-October.

As our climate continues to warm, our tropical season seems to begin earlier and earlier. The last 7 years had storms develop prior to the official June 1st start date. Because systems are developing earlier, The National Hurricane Center now issues tropical outlooks beginning May 15th.

The WRAL Severe Weather Team will continue to monitor conditions in the tropics. You can check out our tropical forecast every day on wral.com.